The upcoming term is poised to usher in a new chapter of tension between the United States (US) and China, historically characterized by heated discussions on matters of governance systems, democracy, and the status of Taiwan. Lai, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), secured victory in the most hotly contested election on the island in decades, garnering 40.1% of the votes. His win dealt a severe blow to Beijing's aspirations for greater influence over the island, which is considered by China to have separated from the mainland.
The re-election of a party aiming to minimize China's influence for three consecutive terms will test the stabilization of relations between Beijing and Washington. The communication established by US President Joe Biden with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November of the previous year now faces the risk of being rendered futile due to the displeasure of the People's Republic.
Moreover, China has repeatedly accused Lai of being a troublemaker and a separatist, with these allegations intensifying during the campaign for Taiwan's recent elections. Both Lai and the previous leader, Tsai Ing-wen, asserted that, in essence, Taiwan has already become a separate nation, eliminating the need for a formal declaration to gain recognition from other jurisdictions. Such comments have fueled China's anger, reinforcing its commitment to withhold recognition of Taiwan's independence indefinitely. Despite Lai hinting at cooperation with China, his party is unlikely to resume negotiations with Beijing, which have been halted for the past eight years.
The Chinese Communist Party insists on acknowledging Taiwan as part of China as a prerequisite for any dialogue, a red line for the DPP. In his celebratory speech in Taipei on Saturday night, Lai indicated that he would maintain close relations with the US, pledging to uphold peace in the Taiwan Strait and continue strong ties with major democratic nations. This reflects a delicate balancing act required to sustain interactions with the US while avoiding tensions with China that could escalate into conflict.
"We declare to the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy," stated Lai, as reported by Bloomberg on Sunday (14/1). The voters' decision in Taiwan to support Lai demonstrates a desire to maintain distance from China, surpassing increasing frustrations over domestic issues such as high property prices and slow wage growth.
Addressing economic concerns, Lai vowed to further develop the chip industry in the region, dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. As Taiwan remains vigilant post the 2024 elections, officials in Taipei anticipate increased pressure from China before the new president takes office in May 2024. The official statement from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes its opposition to Taiwan's demanded independence regardless of any changes on the island.
In terms of US support, President Joe Biden, who pledged to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, clarified in his recent brief comments over the weekend that the major power does not support Taiwan's independence. Biden's statement appears to be aimed at alleviating concerns in China. The US traditionally adopts a policy of strategic ambiguity, recognizing China's historical claims to sovereignty over Taiwan and maintaining only unofficial relations with the island while promising defense assistance.
However, Biden's assertion that the US would intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan has strained relations between the US and Beijing. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the election demonstrates the strength of Taiwan's democracy and reiterates the US commitment to achieving a peaceful resolution, free from coercion and pressure. "Washington will collaborate with Lai and all leaders in Taiwan to advance the longstanding relationship," he added. Chairman of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson will seek a delegation of Members of Congress to travel to Taipei after Lai's inauguration in May.
Meanwhile, economists and geopolitical observers view the dynamics of the 2024 elections in Taiwan as a potential source of heightened tension between the US and China, encompassing economic, social, and political contexts. Jennifer Welch, Head of Geo-economics Analysis at Bloomberg Economics, notes that Washington is willing to cooperate with whoever wins, but tensions may arise to some extent due to China's deep-seated distrust of Lai. Danny Russel, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, adds that the election is not truly concluded until Beijing's response is realized, ensuring Taiwan remains under China's control. "After warning that the election marked a choice between war and peace, China wants voters to face the consequences of a wrong choice," he said.
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